Today’s Columns – 19 March, 2010

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Khushkhebri Ki Gheri by Syed Anwer Qedwai

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An exhausted government by Ahmad Rafay Alam

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Urban/urbane

Friday, March 19, 2010
Ahmad Rafay Alam

It’s amazing that Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif had no idea how offensive his remarks at the Jaamia Naeemia in Lahore last week were. Being summoned to meet the Chief of the Army Staff certainly made him look like an errant schoolboy called to the principal’s office.

Normally, I can’t bring myself to comment on what we euphemistically refer to as our “politics” (Latin for poly, meaning many; and ticks, meaning ticks). There are enough experts on the subject to fill a thousand newspapers, but the chief minister’s exhortation to the Taliban to leave Punjab alone – on the specious grounds that both his government and they share a common stance on, of all things, the Kerry-Lugar Bill! – has left one in the uneasy position of having to agree with the reaction to these remarks by Governor Salmaan Taseer. It’s not often that this happens, and so, if the omens portended it, I offer my “expertise.”

The interesting thing about the PML-N is the consistency it has with respect to its connection with the Jaamia Naeemia. This was the seminary at which Nawaz Sharif spoke just days after returning from his exile in Mayfair, SW1, London. This is in contrast to the stance on the other issues the PML-N held then and now. For example, in the 1990s, the PML-N was the party that stormed the Supreme Court and jailed an editor for his comments. Now it is a party for the freedom of the judiciary and the Fourth Estate.

Governor Taseer’s reaction has been very harsh and, which is interesting, very sophisticated. He has pointed out a chain of events that put the PML-N into a rather tight corner. He refers to senior PML-N ministers canvassing for candidates with dubious backgrounds and links to extremist organisations. He refers to recent statistics that reveal that crime in Punjab has skyrocketed in just the past year. These and other references paint a chilling picture of official sympathy for religious extremism. But read in another light, they paint a picture of a government buckling under the pressure of its responsibility and failing to meet the standards it has set for itself.

The statistics on the increase in crime in Punjab are most damning. The first responsibility of the state, as we were told by Mohammad Ali Jinnah in his speech to the Constituent Assembly on 11 August, 1947, is to protect the lives and property of its citizens. A forty-per-cent increase in the incidence of crime in the past two years clearly spells out that this duty is not being done. This is damning news not just for the government of Punjab but all the provincial governments and the federal government as well.

Recently, several incidents have come into public which point to thana culture and a complete breakdown of the criminal justice system. The torture of highway robbers at the hands of the Punjab Police in Chiniot, broadcast all over Pakistan on the electronic media, firstly revealed just how unashamedly common a practice police torture has become – standard operating procedure, in fact – and, secondly, created a wave of sympathy for a bunch of criminals who had been caught red-handed.

Despite the airing, the matter got in the media and, despite the universal criticism of the police brutality, thana culture is so endemic and so entwined with the political establishment that rare was the opinion that offered anything by way of reform. This thana culture is given the air it needs to breathe by politicians who manipulate it for their ends. What we need is not just an end to the thana culture; we need an end to the politicians who approve of police encounters. But you know what they say about the election process: monkey in, monkey out.

Then, there’s the ongoing saga of the DSP of Rang Mahal police station in Lahore. Vicious allegations fly in both directions, but it seems that the crux of the matter is that the DSP refused to release two men arrested on charges of criminal activity. The DSP claims to have fended off unwarranted interference in an investigation by senior police officials. Senior police officials, on the other hand, have alleged the DSP is “insane” and that his scandal-ridden career is a blot on the reputation of the Punjab Police (and that’s quite a tall order).

But what is unarguable is that, on the one hand, if the DSP is correct, unwarranted and mala-fide interference in police investigations by senior police officers is also a common practice and, on the other, if the DSP is wrong, then the Punjab Police has turned a blind eye and let a crazed thug rise through the ranks to a position of seniority.

I, for one, don’t know which is worse. What I do know is that this incident does nothing for the image of the police as an institution meant to protect the lives and property of the citizens of Pakistan. When was the last time someone voluntarily went to the police for help?

The PML-N government in Punjab has been in office for two years, give or take one Governor’s Raj. Other than bully a bureaucracy into a state of exhausted and terrified submission, and the Sasta Ata Scheme, it’s difficult to see what the government has done during its tenure so far. Sure, the city of Lahore has the Shalimar Overpass. Sure, another segment of the city’s infamous Ring Road has been completed. But are these achievements by which a provincial government should be measured?

(Readers are reminded, however, that Lahore still doesn’t have a sewage treatment plant, Lahore’s air is the most polluted in history, and Lahore’s water table is plummeting unsustainably.)

Over and above the parochial nature of the chief minister’s comments, over and above the strange logic they employed, the comments also force an evaluation of the performance of the Shahbaz Sharif government so far.

Just a few months ago, the province nearly touched the State Bank’s limit on overdraft and, if it hadn’t been converted into a loan, Punjab would be bankrupt. Income levels are dropping and poverty levels increasing. Water is running scarce and crop productivity has been said to have been affected. Cities are becoming increasingly choked and polluted, leading to decreases in productivity and increases in health-related issues.

To make matters worse, the spectre of terrorism looms large and, until something is done about law enforcement in this country and the capacity of the police and security agencies, will continue unchecked. Meanwhile, just in Lahore, the GOR-I has been walled up (which has earned it the nickname of “Bureaucratistan”) and the Civil Service Club located inside given several hundred million rupees. One government minister assaulted a female MPA in the Assembly, another PML-N MPA was caught buying jewellery on a credit card she stole, and the last chief secretary was forced to quit when his car ran over a retired military officer. The Lahore Transport Company, the flagship initiative to bring public transport to the city, has, to-date, done nothing of substance.

In the middle of its tenure, the Punjab government must realise that, if nothing else, it is suffering from exhaustion itself. Running an exhausted government does no one any favour. It must understand that it has to change tack and strategy.

For my two bit’s worth, I’ll suggest that (i) not every decision has to be taken at the highest level; and (ii) the government should have a fulltime information minister.

The writer is an advocate of the high court and a member of the adjunct faculty at LUMS. He has an interest in urban planning.

Email: ralam@nexlinx.net.pk

Today’s Columns – 18 March, 2010

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Neya Musharaf Aur Purana Musharaf by Hamid Mir

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Chend Ghour Talab Masa’el by Dr. Maleeha Lodhi

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Dehshet Gerdi Aur Iss Ka Tedarek by Dr. Tahir ul Qadri

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From bust to boom by Abid Hasan

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Thursday, March 18, 2010
Abid Hasan

Pakistan is going through one of its worst economic crises. Although the government has been trying to stabilise the economy to avoid a meltdown, the situation on the ground continues to be very fragile and vulnerable. The poor and low income families face intolerable cost of living and high unemployment, while the private sector – Pakistan’s engine of growth— seems to have lost its luster and vibrancy.

The political leaders (and the media) are exhibiting a Nero-like behaviour, bombarding the public with an overdose of ‘constitutional amendments’ and ‘conspiracy politics’ instead of giving greater priority to the real issues. A sound constitution is important, no doubt, however, it will not put food on poor people’s table. A stable political system and drastic improvements in the security situation are the sine qua non for the country to move ahead. The political leadership and the media need to devote more of their energy and attention to accelerate growth necessary to create employment opportunities for the tens of millions of poor and unemployed.

Few countries have shown the kind of resilience and bouncing back that Pakistan has displayed. In its 60 years’ history, Pakistan has had a decent growth rate that could be the envy of most developing countries, despite several catastrophic events — the breaking up of the country, several wars, nationalisation, major shocks to the civil services and higher judiciary every time there was a military takeover or transition to civil rule, to name a few. Clearly, Pakistan’s private sector has shown the ability to overcome adversities.

This article suggests several actions that the government could take to overcome the current economic despair and malaise to put the country on the right track.

Firstly, Pakistan needs a world-class team for managing key economic ministries — finance, planning and commerce. One clear driver of Pakistan’s boom years in the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s, of the ‘shining’ India in the last decade, and of many East-Asian economies, has been the outstanding quality of the economic managers and their team — majority of whom were highly trained economists with international experience. Collectively and individually these economic teams embodied the five Cs — clean, competent, courageous, credible and continuity — which are the necessary traits for all successful, high-performing teams. All the Pakistani economic teams, during the boom years, led by Shoaib (1960s), GIK (1980s) and Shaukat Aziz (2000s), met the five Cs criteria. India has had an economic team comprising Manmohan and his boys — for over a decade.

It is absolutely critical that the economic ministers and their teams have: (i) high integrity standards so that they don’t use economic policy to benefit themselves and can also block policy capture by corrupt vested interests (ii) strong professional competence (iii) domestic and international credibility, and (iv) conviction and the courage to say no to bad ideas. Having an economic team with the credentials of 5Cs in place for a long period has done wonders for many countries, and can certainly do wonders for Pakistan, too.

Secondly, the prime minister must set aside at least half of his time to personally lead reforms in the following areas which are critical to accelerating pro-poor growth — exports, fiscal reforms, water, energy, poverty reduction, and public administration. He should establish, and head separate cabinet committees to oversee formulation and implementation of reforms in each of the above areas. The reforms should be developed after a thorough discussion in national and provincial assemblies (perhaps each issue could be granted a special session). Extensive dissemination of the reforms in the media and the public by the prime minister and his cabinet should be ensured, for public dissemination is the outreach strategy pursued by President Obama while promoting his healthcare reforms. These committees should meet at least once a quarter, and include provincial CMs and officials, since any meaningful reforms can only take place with the full involvement of the provincial governments. The work of these committees and the personal involvement of the prime minister would give a sense of direction and hope to the citizens, private sector and government institutions.

Pakistan urgently needs an out of the box strategy to accelerate the export growth. For a country which is so dependent on imported energy and food, Pakistan will always face foreign exchange crisis — every few years — unless the export-import gap is narrowed. Pakistan’s excessive reliance on foreign loans and donor aid has mostly resulted from the need to finance the high current account deficits. During the last decade, India’s export has almost doubled to 23 per cent of the GDP (2009), while that of Pakistan’s has stagnated at around 14 per cent. Consequently, India has managed to achieve stable exchange-rates and low levels of current account deficits in recent years as compared to Pakistan. As global experience suggests, (i) exports have been a major driver of growth for the majority of high-growth developing countries, and (ii) export-led growth generates far greater levels of employment as compared to an inward looking strategy. The proposed committee would oversee formulation and implementation of the export strategy. Keeping in view the example of Korea in the 1970s and 80s, this committee should meet at least once a month.

Sustaining high-growth will require fiscal reforms to: lower fiscal deficits and public debt, increase government revenues, reduce state owned enterprises’ losses and wasteful expenditures, and increase resources for pro-poor public services and infrastructure. Lower deficits will reduce future public debt, lower interest rates and increase the availability of credit to the private sector. The proposed fiscal reforms committee would oversee these reforms, which should be discussed in the national and provincial assemblies since increasing tax and non-tax revenues and reducing wasteful spending can only take place with the combined efforts of both federal and provincial legislatures and governments. In addition, the prime minister could set the tone at the top by voluntarily paying taxes on his agricultural income. Once leaders pay their share of taxes, the FBR would be on much stronger grounds to go after ordinary citizens and businessmen evading taxes.

Pakistan urgently needs a comprehensive water strategy to feed the burgeoning population and to avoid internal water conflicts. The proposed cabinet committee on water would oversee implementation of the strategy which would need to be debated in the national and provincial assemblies to reach a national consensus on this divisive issue. The lack of concern shown by our leaders on this important issue has resulted in our water reservoirs running dry. Pakistan can no longer afford inaction. Building large multi-purpose dams and aggressive water conservation would be the key elements of the water sector strategy.

An energy committee is proposed to ensure that this area is given the necessary cabinet-level attention, so that Pakistan always has adequate availability of affordable energy needed for growth and poverty reduction.

Given the high levels of poverty and unemployment, it is critical to ensure effective implementation of safety net programmes and those related to meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for health and education. Overseeing these efforts would be the responsibility of the committee on poverty reduction.

No government can govern and improve the welfare of its citizens if public institutions are not functioning effectively. Up until 1960s, Pakistan’s public institutions were a role-model for other developing countries. They are now dysfunctional as a result of several catastrophic shocks they suffered in the 1960s, 1970s and every time there was a transition in government. The proposed cabinet committee on public administration would oversee reforms to re-build public institutions.

Revival of the economy is critical for Pakistan’s future, but there is no magic-pill that can do wonders for it. Moving from bust to boom will require the prime minister to lead from the front foot, personally overseeing implementation of reforms in the key areas, with the support of a sound economic team and cabinet committees.

The writer is a former operations adviser at the World Bank.

Email: fffhasan@gmail.com

The strategic dialogue by Ikram Sehgal

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Thursday, March 18, 2010
Ikram Sehgal

In a few days Pakistan and the US will be engaged in a strategic dialogue having far-reaching consequence for the region and its peoples. Pakistan’s battlefield successes in Swat and South Waziristan changed the dynamics of the geopolitical equation from what it was less than a year ago. US vice-president Joseph Biden was the first as a US senator to recognise the rank injustice done to Pakistan over the years and the need to have a more pragmatic even-handed policy. Once President Obama took office and carried out a thorough review, US decision-makers, including Hillary Clinton, Gen James Jones, Admiral Mike Mullen and Gen Petraeus—joined by the battlefield commander in Afghanistan, Gen Stanley McCrystal—are now unanimous in recognising Pakistan’s crucial role as the centre of gravity to resolve the biggest US headache at present, Afghanistan.

George W Bush’s closest advisors, led by Condoleeza Rice, were heavily weighted in favour of India at the expense of Pakistan, and that too without geopolitical logic. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s military dictators have historically sold Pakistan short at the negotiating table to ensure their own survival, despite the fact that they were always in a position to drive a hard bargain. That selfish failure undercut Pakistan’s core national interests.

Gen Patraeus put it best the other day, that there must be recognition that each country has to go with its own national interest, and work towards convergence of interests, and narrowing the gaps. The US has its own core national interests, as has Pakistan. With a timeline limited to only up to another two years, fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan to a standstill and then exiting without leaving the vacuum will take some doing.

US abandonment of the region in the 90s resulted in the rise of the Taliban, and subsequently Al-Qaeda. Someone has to full the vacuum, maybe not as a US proxy, as is the common perception, but to ensure common national interests.

Afghanistan is a predator society and it will take decades of peace to change the existing mindset. For centuries Afghans have used their geographical crossroads location to live off the traders who passed through their territory. Necessarily Afghanistan is dependant on Pakistan for nearly everything, whether it comes from or through Pakistan. While everyone and his uncle blames Pakistan for “hosting” Taliban sanctuaries within its borders, they well know Pakistan has done all within its resources to curb this access but are mostly unable to stop two-way traffic across the Durand Line. We have suffered grievously for it, and continue to do so in more ways than one. At a recent security conference in Brussels there was stony silence when the rather unpalatable subject of the three-million-plus Afghan refugees in Pakistan today for decades was raised, as well as the astonishing fact that not one Afghan government official of note had ever visited them over the years to find out about their fate. (At least 1.6 million of these are in refugee camps, and the rest dispersed in Pakistani cities.) Eloquent about the $1.2 billion Indian aid given over the past decade, the mathematics about $2 per individual per day on food spent on the refugees by Pakistan and that it came to $2 billion per year (or $20 billion on food alone) over the past decade, was lost on the Afghans present (and others).

India’s economic interests in Afghanistan cannot be denied or ignored. Access through the land route through Pakistan must be subject to the Kashmir and water issue being satisfactorily settled. However, Indians cannot rival the interests of Pakistan, which is Afghanistan’s immediate neighbour. While the “strategic depth” theory is nonsense, Afghanistan’s dependence on Pakistan’s economy and agriculture are overwhelming facts of life to consider in the formulation of any policy to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan.

The Pakistani army has destroyed the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Swat and South Waziristan, and now lately their traditional route of infiltration into Pakistan through Bajaur. This has caused the dismantling of their logistics infrastructure and thecapture of many Taliban leaders, as their network has collapsed and sanctuaries exposed to interdiction. Despite his anti-Pakistan tirade, Pakistan has been supportive of Karzai in the Afghan presidential elections. During his recent visit to Pakistan we saw a born-against Karzai—or is he a tremendous actor?

The truth is probably a bit of both. He seemed genuinely interested in a new relationship with Pakistan, but was loath to publicly abandon a long-standing friendship with India. This would be acceptable to Pakistan as long as India does not use Afghanistan as a platform to foment trouble in Balochistan, of which there is no doubt.

One must forgive Fareed Zakaria for his constant tirade against Pakistan, as an Indian Muslim he has to show himself to be more “loyal than the king.” His intellectual dishonesty in turning the once-respected Newsweek into an anti-Pakistan propaganda machine is appalling. If that was not enough, a recent article by Selig Harrison on “Zardari’s courage” was nothing but paid advertisement against the Pakistani army. Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Council recently gave testimony before the US Foreign Relations Committee that while Pakistani intelligence agencies may have had links decades ago with organisations like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) because of Kashmir, to suggest the existence of a continuing connections is baseless—even ludicrous, given the battlefield casualties Pakistan is suffering. Shuja’s elder brother, the late Gen Asif Nawaz Janjua, would have been proud of him.

What a wonderful ambassador for Pakistan in the US this outstanding and credible intellectual would make! In contrast, the present incumbent is not worthy of comment. With such people representing Pakistan in a crucial country like the US, what does Pakistan expect in a strategic dialogue? Kayani should have had the good sense and propriety not to meet with Haqqani recently, Mr Haqqani is now going around claiming he got Shuja Pasha the year’s extension, and has ensured Kayani’s as COAS. Hopefully Kayani won’t take him along into the Pentagon discussions. God knows what else he is likely to claim!

The US is supporting Pakistan generously. Unfortunately it is not enough, neither economically and certainly not in military aid. In key areas of economy, agriculture, power sector, communications and telecommunications, health, etc we require massive injection of funds. Above all, we need to be brought in from the nuclear cold to overcome our dire energy deficiencies. Vital to US success in Afghanistan, Pakistan is getting only a fraction of what it should get, comparatively others get much more for doing much less. The strategic dialogue should be a joint national security strategy session for a comprehensive review of all relevant factors encompassing mutual interests in geo-politics and economics.

The strategic dialogue is crucial for the region’s stability, as well as for peace and prosperity in Pakistan. The armed forces have changed the equation with their magnificent performance on the ground. However, this could not have been possible without the democratic dispensation in Pakistan today, however ugly it is. It is important that the system must stay. The US can stay on top of the game in Afghanistan, and the region, by betting heavily on the proven successful formula, the Pakistan Army and Pakistan.

The writer is a defence and political analyst. Email: isehgal@pathfinder9.com

Do Lagamain Ya Aik by Haroon Rasheed

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